气候变化对长江上游径流影响预估

利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中5个气候模式在3种典型浓度路径(RCPs)下的预估结果驱动SWAT水文模型,预估了21世纪气候变化对长江上游年径流量、季节分配以及极端径流的影响。结果表明：预估的长江上游平均气温呈显著上升趋势,21世纪末较当前(1986—2005年)升高1.5~5.5℃,降水总体呈增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前气候平均值,21世纪末相对于当前增加5%~15%。流域内气候变化存在明显空间差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域气温升高和降水增加幅度均大于流域平均值。预估的长江上游年径流量及各月平均径流均有增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前多年平均值,21世纪中期增加4%~8%,21世纪末增加10%~15%。预估的径流年内分布的均匀性有所增加,但年际变化明显增大,极端旱涝事件的频率和强度明显增加。预估的各子流域径流变化对气候变化的响应也存在差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域年径流量、年际变化和年内分布变化小,对气候变化的响应表现为低敏感;嘉陵江流域、乌江流域和长江上游干流径流增加幅度大,同时极端丰枯出现的频率和程度增加显著,是气候变化响应的敏感区域。     

Kinetic energy budget and moisture flux convergence analysis during interaction between two cyclonic systems: Case study

An analysis of the kinetic energy budget during a case of interaction between middle latitude and extratropical cyclones has been made in this work. Horizontal flux convergence constitutes a major energy sink. Generation of kinetic energy via cross-contour flow is a persistent source throughout the growth and decay periods. Dissipation of kinetic energy from subgrid to grid scales is an important source during the pre-storm period; it acts as a sink during the growth and decay periods. The major contribution to kinetic energy comes from a persistent upper tropospheric jet stream activity throughout the period of the cyclone development. The characteristics of moisture-flux components (divergent and rotational) along with precipitable water content for different tropospheric layers throughout the life cycle of our cyclone are also studied in this work. It is found that most of required humidity for our cyclone are initiated from Arabian Sea and then to some extent are reinforced over Gulf of Aden and east of central Africa and then by passing over Red sea enter to the south and south east of Mediterranean Sea. The rotational component of the moisture transport brings moisture from two regions; the first which is considered the main region is the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, Gulf of Aden and north east of Sudan. The second source region is the Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea. In the middle troposphere, the primary moisture source is found over central Africa, which in turn is traced to the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the Arabian Sea. The upper-level moisture fluxes are weak and play a minor role over the area of interaction between two cyclones.     

Bearing capacity of strip foundations reinforced with geogrid sheets by using upper bound finite‐element limit analysis

By using the upper bound finite‐elements limit analysis, with an inclusion of single and two horizontal layers of reinforcements, the ultimate bearing capacity has been computed for a rigid strip footing placed over (i) fully granular, (ii) cohesive‐frictional, and (iii) fully cohesive soils. It is assumed that (i) the reinforcements are structurally strong so that no axial tension failure can occur, (ii) the reinforcement sheets have negligible resistance to bending, and (iii) the shear failure can take place between the reinforcement and soil mass. It is expected that the different approximations on which the analysis has been based would generally remain applicable for reinforcements in the form of geogrid sheets. A method has been proposed to incorporate the effect of the reinforcement in the analysis. The efficiency factors, η_c and η_γ, to be multiplied with N_c and N_γ , for finding the bearing capacity of reinforced foundations, have been established. The results have been obtained (i) for different values of ? in case of fully granular and cohesive‐frictional soils, and (ii) for different rates at which the cohesion increases with depth for a fully cohesive soil. The optimum positions of the reinforcements' layers have also been determined. The effect of the reinforcements' length on the results has also been analyzed. As compared to cohesive soils, the granular soils, especially with higher values of ?, cause a much greater increase in the bearing capacity. The results compare reasonably well with the available theoretical and experimental data from literature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

计算多年冻土上限深度的地温法

本文以大量实测资料为基础,探讨了季节融化层导温性能及地温峰值滞后等自然因素对多年冻土上限深度的影响。还通过地表面的热效应和气温脉动的研究,讨论了多年冻土上限深度的小区域特点和未来期望值。提出了适合青藏高原多年冻土区计算多年冻土上限深度的半经验公式。由于主要依据是地温的分布和传导特征,故称之为“地温法”。     

A survey of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations

The development of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations has intensified over the past decade. The earliest methods were usually heuristic adaptations of deterministic methods, but were found to have limited accuracy regardless of the order of the original scheme. A stochastic counterpart of the Taylor formula now provides a framework for the systematic investigation of numerical methods for stochastic differential equations. It suggests numerical schemes, which involve multiple stochastic integrals, of higher order of convergence. We shall survey the literature on these and on the earlier schemes in this paper. Our discussion will focus on diffusion processes, but we shall also indicate the extensions needed to handle processes with jump components. In particular, we shall classify the schemes according to strong or weak convergence criteria, depending on whether the approximation of the sample paths or of the probability distribution is of main interest.     

论宁夏金场子渗流热卤水-表生改造型金矿床的矿源

稳定同位素、岩石微量元素(金)和地质特征研究的结果,表明金场子金矿床的成矿物质来源系上地壳源,并且金、银、铅、铜等金属和硫、硒、砷、氯、氟、碳等来源于石炭纪和泥盆纪沉积岩。成矿流体是大气水和沉积地层水的混合溶液。金矿化与地热流体渗流热卤水成矿作用和表生风化成矿作用有关。     

长江流域旱涝典型年大气水汽输送

利用我国125个探空站一日两次自地面至100hpa共11个层次上的观测资料,对长江流域典型夏涝年(1980年)和夏旱年(1985年)我国大气中水汽总输送场、涡动输送场及散度场进行了计算分析。结果表明:当水汽总输送场从西北、西南和东南三支气流携带的水汽交汇于长江流域,且整个水汽输送场稳定持久,则在水汽辐合带附近导致大量降水,形成洪涝;反之,当三支气流微弱不稳定,不能形成水汽辐合带条件,则形成干旱。涡动输送亦反映出类似的特征。稳定且强盛的西南气流水汽输送是形成降水的主要条件和原因。     

Calculated and observed seismic behaviour of exposed upper mantle

In order to determine the seismic properties of rocks representing the continental crust/upper mantle transition, a structural and petrographical study of peridotites of the Ivrea-Verbano zone (N. Italy) has been undertaken. The seismic behaviour (Vp, Vs, birefringence, orientation of the fast shear-wave polarisation plane) has been calculated from the modal composition of rock samples, together with the crystallographic preferred orientation and the single crystal elastic constants, using the methods of Mainprice (1990). It is shown that the intrinsic anisotropy of peridotites is mainly due to the lattice preferred orientation (LPO) of olivine and to the competing effects due to the LPO of orthopyroxene. If present, well-oriented hydrous phases such as phlogopite, leads to both P- and S-waves velocities becoming drastically reduced, but the anisotropy and the S-wave splitting (mainly on the foliation plane) is increased. An attempt has been made to apply this petrologic and microstructural approach to understand the seismic properties of ultramafic rocks with the aid of a mobile seismic network set up in the Ivrea-Verbano zone. Five recording units with 3-component geophones were installed on the most representative lithologies of the Ivrea-Verbano zone: kinzigites, gabbros, stronalites, and on metapelites of the adjacent outcrop of the Serie dei Laghi. During five months the seismic network recorded 49 events that were mainly regional earthquakes. The preliminary analysis of the first arrival revealed a high-velocity anomaly near the Finero ultramafic massif. Rough calculations indicated that this anomaly could be due to a shallow-depth, peridotitic body about six kilometres thick. S-wave polarisation analysis was carried out on the horizontal components of the seismograms of four regional earthquakes that showed a first arrival propagating almost vertically at the recording sites. Four earthquakes were chosen in order to reconstruct the orientation of the polarisation plane of the shear phases. The preliminary results of this analysis have shown a qualitatively good agreement between the orientation of the polarisation plane of the fast shear-wave and the strike of the foliation at the station near Finero, located on kinzigites of the Ivrea-Verbano zone, although the relationships between the local structural setting and the polarisation orientations at the other recording sites is not yet so clear.     

济阳坳陷上第三系馆陶组上段沉积相研究

利用地质资料、测井资料、地震资料及分析化验资料对济阳坳陷上第三系馆陶组上段岩相古地理特征进行了全面系统地研究。首先从岩性、沉积结构和构造、砂体形态、电性特征、地震反射等方面论证馆陶组上段为山麓洪积相和河流相沉积，其中它们又可进一步细分为10种亚相或微相。其次，详细论述了沉积相的平面展布，同时还指出了油气分布与沉积相带的关系。此外，本文还指出馆陶组上段沉积期的物源方向、河流流向、最终汇水区及当时的古气候条件等。     

论黄河上游多民族经济开发区资源开发战略

本文在分析黄河上游多民族经济开发区资源特点的基础上，论证了经济区资源开发模式及开发战略，并就经济蛆内各区域非平衡开发及开发时序提出了一些见解。